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Sometimes the existence of a newspaper story is as interesting as the story itself. That’s the case for a Thursday article in the New York Times, which reports that Vice President J.D. Vance has been sounding out U.S. military leaders’ blunt views about the war in Iran. The story mostly confirms what we already knew: Things aren’t going well. But if everyone in the administration wanted these discussions to be private, they would have stayed that way. So who talked, and what were they hoping to achieve? It may well be another effort by Vance to distance himself from an unpopular conflict that threatens to derail his political future. There are other possibilities as well, though, so let’s get into it.
Back up. What exactly does this story say?
It reports that Vance has been directly calling U.S. commanders in the Middle East, Asia, and Europe since the spring to solicit their opinions about tactics, casualties, and Iran’s response. The article—by reporters Jonathan Swan, Adam Entous, and Maggie Haberman—adds that those commanders are alarmed by how much the war has depleted U.S. weapons stockpiles, including long-range missiles and interceptors to thwart air attacks.
It sounds like the story paints Vance in a positive light?
We’ve long known Vance opposed Donald Trump’s decision to attack Iran. But this puts more meat on the bone, portraying the vice president as a diligent student of reality in contrast to his boss’s lie-filled bluster. Vance “has sought to surface a greater level of detail and nuance about the war,” it says, and “developed a reputation inside the Trump administration for steeping himself in operational detail.” Imagine writing that sentence about Trump.
In fairness, Vance doesn’t exactly come off like a rogue agent. Trump reportedly knew about his listening tour and Vance allegedly used it to “better advise” Trump. But the implication that he’s on the right side of the war, despite being the No. 2 official in the administration that started it, is unmistakable. “Vance came away from some of his conversations with deep concerns about the overall strategy and the prospects for success,” the article says. That may well be true: This is a deeply reported story from top-notch reporters. But it’s also a conclusion that happens to line up with how most Americans feel about the conflict.
OK, was Vance a source for this piece??
In sensitive stories like this, journalists tend to be cagey. The article says only that it’s “based on interviews with more than a half-dozen current and former officials,” including anonymous “people who spoke to” Vance and “officials with direct knowledge.” Was Vance—or people he asked to leak on his behalf—among them? It’s possible. As the article notes, the war’s unpopularity could sink a potential Vance presidential campaign in 2028. Sowing behind-the-scenes stories about how he’s actually approaching it like a responsible statesman could play to his advantage.
Is there another possibility?
The story makes clear that Vance, despite getting the inside dope, has misled the public about how the war is going. So maybe someone who wants to undermine a possible 2028 bid leaked Vance’s reconnaissance mission to make it look like he’s backstabbing Trump or two-timing the American people.
What else might be going on here?
Trying to suss out reporters’ sources can quickly turn conspiratorial. But maybe Trump’s advisers—if not the president himself—wanted Vance’s private concerns to become public. Vance is currently the most likely GOP nominee in 2028, and many of Trump’s subordinates would presumably prefer that a Republican win the White House. Giving Vance plausible deniability if Trump’s war keeps going south might help. Alternatively, maybe military leaders are trying to nudge Trump and his more jingoistic advisers toward the exits in Iran. Or perhaps the president himself is testing the waters with one more story about how he’s trying to wind down the war to gauge his supporters’ response.
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What’s the broader significance here?
The Times article is another window into a White House that seems to be falling apart over Iran. Trump, the story reiterates, didn’t think the Iranian regime would last more than a few days. “For most senior officials,” it concludes, “information about the war remains hard to come by.” Maybe Vance’s just-asking-questions routine is a sincere effort to fix that. Of course, despite whatever private misgivings he may have, the vice president remains a line-toeing Trump sycophant in public. And he’s asking the sorts of things a more thoughtful commander in chief probably would have considered before starting a war in the first place.
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