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Read more This Trump Speech Sent a Dangerous Message to Iran—and the Rest of the World
Welcome to Part 2 of our explainer about which party will control Congress after November’s midterm elections. As we wrote earlier this week, Democrats are a virtual lock to flip the House, but the Senate is another story. Despite Donald Trump’s unpopularity, most election observers put the odds of a Dem majority somewhere around a coin toss.
OK, give me the basics.
Right now, the Senate has 53 Republicans vs. 47 members of the Democratic caucus. Given that Vice President J.D. Vance is the tiebreaker, Democrats need to pick up a net of at least four* seats in the midterms (more on that asterisk below).
Where are Democrats on defense?
Defense might be the wrong word in Georgia, where polls show freshman Sen. Jon Ossoff handily beating a Republican challenger who keeps some questionable company. But in the states where incumbent Democrats are retiring, the party probably has to replace all of them to win a majority. Dems are on pretty safe ground in Minnesota, a blue state that bore the brunt of Trump’s immigration crackdown. In blue-leaning New Hampshire, though, some polls show a tight race between Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas and John Sununu, a former senator whose family is a GOP political dynasty there.
The road looks rockiest in the swing state of Michigan. Abdul El-Sayed, a progressive, faces former Rep. Mike Rogers, whom my colleague Jim Newell describes as “a buttoned-up, country-club Republican from the George W. Bush era.” Rogers only narrowly lost a Senate race there in 2024, so Dems have work to do.
Where are Democrats on offense?
The party’s best opportunities to pick up seats currently held by Republicans are probably North Carolina, Ohio, and Maine, but each has caveats. Polls show former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper spanking his MAGA-aligned opponent, but the state hasn’t sent a Democrat to the Senate since 2008. In Ohio, former Sen. Sherrod Brown is mounting a comeback bid in a onetime swing state that has gone red in the Trump era. And in Maine, Republican Sen. Susan Collins is vying for a sixth term against Troy Jackson, a former logger who replaced the scandal-ridden Graham Platner in an eleventh-hour switcheroo. But Collins has a history of overperforming, and polls suggest a close race.
Even if Dems win all those races, though, they’d gain only three seats. Where’s the fourth?
Nice counting. The difficulty of getting that majority-making seat helps show why Dems’ path is so tricky this year. One possible pickup is Texas (!). The state is conservative, but corruption allegations and a messy divorce threaten to sink state Attorney General Ken Paxton. He trails in most polls to Democrat James Talarico, a charismatic state lawmaker who Democrats are hoping can both turn out the party faithful and win over Republicans who can’t stomach Paxton. Elsewhere, former Rep. Mary Peltola of Alaska, who lost in 2024, hopes to return to Congress as a senator, and polling suggests she has a chance of beating Republican Dan Sullivan. And in Iowa, a state representative and former Paralympian named Josh Turek is angling for an upset win against GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson. (The polling is all over the place in that race.) Texas, Alaska, and Iowa all backed Trump three times, so they’re heavy lifts for Democrats. But stranger things have happened in wave elections, which November could become.
What are the stakes here?
Dems winning the Senate would all but end Trump’s legislative agenda. It would also make it harder to get conservative federal judges confirmed—including to the Supreme Court.
Read more Donald Trump’s Strategy for November: Cheap Tricks and $5,000 Checks
So about that asterisk …
It’s a big one. John Fetterman, Pennsylvania’s 6-foot-8 senator, seems to be wavering over which party he wants to belong to. Elected in 2022 as a progressive, Fetterman has increasingly voted with Republicans and criticized his party’s left flank. On Wednesday, he appeared by video at Trump’s midterm convention and pledged to work with the president to help Pennsylvania. Fetterman has said he’ll leave the Democrats if they become “the anti-Israel party,” stoking speculation that he could soon switch sides. In that case, Dems might have to net five seats to guarantee Senate control. Fetterman claims he won’t put his party through that. “Should the Senate flip in November, I will still be the 51st vote that I ran on,” he said yesterday. But Fetterman has a recent history of erratic behavior, and it’s not clear Democrats should trust his word. Which means, as tough as the party’s path looks right now, things could always get worse.
Which Senate race this year most interests you and why? Let me know at [email protected].
Election Day is still almost two months away, so let’s transition to the immediate term: how to enjoy your evening.
If you’re looking for a comfort watch: Call My Agent!, a delicious comedy series about a French talent agency, is back after several years off the air—and this time, it’s a movie. According to Slate’s Dana Stevens, you’ll enjoy the film even if you haven’t seen the show. But if you do binge the series first, watching it will be like “getting 24 consecutive deliveries of perfectly baked Parisian pastry.” Bon appétit!
If you want to get metaphysical: College football is rife with scandals, but the latest one is particularly surreal. Alex Kirshner explains why Michigan’s latest controversy has spectators contemplating the nature of time itself.
If you need some enrichment: What’s a “short name for a big explosive” (three letters)? What’s a “gamer cheer sometimes spelled with zeros” (four letters)? Give your brain a workout with today’s crossword.
If you’re trying to understand what’s happening online: Raising a kid today requires spending a lot of time navigating digital platforms. There are WhatsApp chats, special apps, YouTube channels, subreddits, Facebook groups, Instagram reels … the chatter, advice, and drama can feel all-consuming. What Next: TBD host Lizzie O’Leary joins forces with ICYMI host Kate Lindsay to make sense of the Wild West that is the parenting internet.
Read more Charlie Kirk’s Death Was Supposed to Change Everything
OK, time for me to leave you to your own devices. See you tomorrow!
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