Susan Collins’ Secret Sauce

The new mission of the Slatest is to explainthe biggest story of the day, but sometimes the story of the year intercedes. And in American politics, that story is which party will control Congress after the November midterm elections. In the U.S. Senate, the road to the majority runs through Maine. Susan Collins, a Republican, has been winning Senate elections in Maine since I was a toddler growing up there. She’s looking to extend her streak in a race that could decide whether Congress will put meaningful checks on Donald Trump’s power.

Luckily, my colleague Jim Newell just published a story about how Collins keeps romping in a state that hasn’t backed a Republican for president since 1988. The piece also explores whether Collins can repeat the feat against Graham Platner, a controversial political outsider who looks very different from her previous Democratic opponents. And as a born-and-raised Mainer, I was eager to hear more about what Jim found.

Ian: Jim, thanks for picking up one more call from a 207 area code. So what’s Collins’ secret?

Jim: She very zealously guards her moderate image and her image as doing not just a lot for Maine but the most for Maine. It’s a very old-fashioned, bring-home-the-bacon style of politics. And that has taken some of the pressure off other controversial votes Collins has taken.

You write that she is “helicopter-dumping cash” from her perch as chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee, funding things like diabetes research and small-town breakwaters across Maine. Does that strategy still work in a Trump 2.0 midterm?

I think that’s the unanswered question, just because of the spread of nationalized politics and polarization. But this story helped me get into the mindset of the difficult decision Maine voters will have to make. Even if you’re a Democrat, your state is going to lose out on a ton of money if Collins loses. City managers and anyone else who might need something from the federal government didn’t want to say anything critical about her on the record. So the money can be both carrot and stick.

Your story is titled “The Legend of Susan Collins,” but by the end of it you seem to be questioning whether she deserves her reputation as an electoral juggernaut. Why?

If you look at her 2020 win, Collins beat her Democratic opponent by 9 points, 51–42. But there was also an independent candidate who got 5 percent, so the anti-Collins vote was larger than 42 percent. It was also a huge swing from 2014, when Collins got 68 percent, and in 2020 there was a presidential election that ensured that MAGA voters would turn out. So if another chunk of voters comes off this time, she could be in real trouble.

Read more The Legend of Susan Collins

OK, so who’s going to win?

My prejudice coming into this story was, After 2020, I’ll never believe that Collins will lose. I think Platner’s scandals have provided her a lifeline. But it wouldn’t surprise me if she lost by 8 or won by 8.

What do you think, readers? Whether or not you’re from Maine, I’m eager to hear your thoughts on Collins’ prospects. Let me know at [email protected].

OK! Time to shift gears. You can’t see the future of our politics, but you can enjoy tonight. How? Glad you asked. 

Perhaps with a good binge-watch? On this one, I’m taking my own advice. After Slate’s Rebecca Onion wrote a piece last month titled “You Really Should Be Watching Widow’s Bay,” I … started watching Widow’s Bay. The Apple TV horror-comedy is like if a more sympathetic version of the mayor from Jaws got stuck between The Shining and Parks and Recreation. We recommend! (And if you stay up all night and call in sick, you can get caught up in time for the Season 1 finale, which airs tomorrow.)

Or a can’t-miss podcast? Actor Peter Dinklage (you may know him as Game of Thrones’ Tyrion Lannister) and playwright Erica Schmidt have been married for two decades, but even though they’ve collaborated on projects, it’s rare for them to do an interview together.So we were thrilled when they agreed to sit down with Death, Sex & Money host Anna Sale for an interview about fame, parenting, and … bad interviews. (We also have the transcript, in case that works better for you.)

Did I mention the World Cup? (Yes, and I’ll keep mentioning it.) Iraq is playing Norway at 6 Eastern, so tune in to watch Erling Haaland—one of the planet’s best goal scorers, who also happens to be a comically large human being. Speaking of great players (and pardon the understatement here), Lionel Messi plays at 9 when Argentina takes on Algeria, and then Jordan (playing in the World Cup for the first time) and Austria close the action at midnight. Need a read between games?

How about some smart advice about a messy drama? Come for the funny image of a husband throwing a dildo over a fence in a fit of rage—and then stay for a really interesting deep dive from Jessica Stoya about marital ethics! (As a bonus, there’s an interview with an ADHD coach for condition-specific tips.)

And finally, might we officially recommend … some sunshine? For decades, we’ve demonized the sun, but it turns out we were mostly wrong. In an adaption from his new book In Defense of Sunlight: The Surprising Science of Sun Exposure, Rowan Jacobsen extols the virtues of getting outside—and flips the script on what we’ve been told about catching rays.

Read more Has an Idaho Doctor Discovered a Loophole in Dobbs?

That’s it for us. Have an exceptional night!